Consumers and business decision-makers are closely watching the presidential election as the contest winds down.
We do not take a position on the candidates. Our investment strategy is based on collective intelligence we gather from the financial markets and the political polling done on the race.
Current national polls, along with market sentiment, indicate a win for Hillary Clinton.
- Historically, equities and bonds have gained during presidential election years when the incumbent party won.
- A Clinton win could avert the anticipated market uncertainty associated with a win by Donald Trump, but a split Congress means that there will likely be no meaningful changes in fiscal policy that would alter the trajectory of the economy or corporate earnings.
- Post-election, political uncertainty should be removed and businesses and consumers are expected to return to normal patterns of spending.
We remain cautious but willing to maintain our current equity exposure as long as these expectations hold. A change in those expectations could alter our allocations.
- Elections can cause volatility, but in our view, the economy, interest rates and valuation levels matter more
- Low current yields on government bonds and the actions of the U.S. Federal Reserve will likely have more influence on fixed income returns than the election results will.
We will be keeping a close eye on corporate profits, the Federal Reserve System, and the U.S. presidential election. Keep an eye out for our upcoming special bulletin regarding the election.
The information presented does not involve the rendering of personalized investment, financial, legal, or tax advice.
Certain statements contained herein may constitute projections, forecasts, and other forward-looking statements. Certain information has been provided by third-party sources and, although believed to be reliable, it has not been independently verified and its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed.
Any options, projections, forecasts, and forward-looking statements presented herein are valid as of the date of this document and are subject to change.
All investing is subject to risk, including the possible loss of the money you invest. When interest rates rise, bond prices fall.
Past performance is no guarantee of future performance.
This material is available to advisory and sub-advised clients of City National Rochdale, LLC, a Registered Investment Advisor and a wholly owned subsidiary of City National Bank
Non-deposit Investment Products: are not FDIC insured, are not Bank guaranteed, and may lose value